Water Diplomacy On The Nile River
Salam! In this post I am remaining on the Nile, writing about one of the most important and challenging aspects of the politics of water in Africa: transboundary water diplomacy!
In Africa, 90% of the total freshwater resources are found in river basins crossing the political borders of two or more countries (SIWI, 2018). This is critical as water is an integral part of various political issues, like agriculture, energy, public health, and transportation (Huntjens, 2016). It is hence necessary to develop effective water diplomacy infrastructures in Africa, so as to prevent, mitigate and resolve the growing water-related conflicts (Huntjens, 2016). Further, water diplomacy helps build trust among participating states and achieve Sustainable Development Goal number 6, which is to ensure access to water and sanitation for all (SIWI, 2018).
The need for improved water diplomacy structures has been especially felt along the Nile over the last few years, and especially among three countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERC)
In Africa, 90% of the total freshwater resources are found in river basins crossing the political borders of two or more countries (SIWI, 2018). This is critical as water is an integral part of various political issues, like agriculture, energy, public health, and transportation (Huntjens, 2016). It is hence necessary to develop effective water diplomacy infrastructures in Africa, so as to prevent, mitigate and resolve the growing water-related conflicts (Huntjens, 2016). Further, water diplomacy helps build trust among participating states and achieve Sustainable Development Goal number 6, which is to ensure access to water and sanitation for all (SIWI, 2018).
The need for improved water diplomacy structures has been especially felt along the Nile over the last few years, and especially among three countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERC)
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Map of the Nile Basin with the major dams. Credits: orientxxi
In 2011, Ethiopia, in a view to meet fast-growing needs for electricity, started the construction of a new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is to become the biggest hydroelectric project in Africa (Johnson, 2018). Building a dam that would fulfill domestic water needs had been an Ethiopian dream for decades, but before 2011 it had been unable to afford it (Cascao & Nicol, 2016). The dam, according to the Ethiopian authorities, is now 60% complete and should be finished by the end of this year. However, for various reasons this project triggered diplomatic tensions with Egypt, who, as we saw in the previous post, almost only relies on water from the Nile river to meet its agricultural needs. Egypt is also the greatest consumer of Nile waters (Cascao & Nicol, 2016), and depending on how quickly Ethiopia fills the dam, the downstream flows to Egypt could very soon be severely restricted, which would be very problematic with regards to the country's food security (Johnson, 2018).
A very short history of diplomacy on the Nile
Because the Nile Basin is shared by a lot of African countries, there have been several attempts to reach international agreements in the recent past, the success of which was always limited. One of them is the 1959 treaty between Egypt and Sudan which clearly advantaged Egypt: under this treaty, Sudan was to use less water than it naturally receives (Johnson, 2018). Another one is the Nile Basin Initiative of 1999, under which all Nile countries intended to come up with a shared vision for the Nile Basin. While this initiative certainly brought positive results such as a whole range of investment projects with common socio-economic benefits, it never really achieved its main goal of sharing the management of the river with a common vision for the future (Cascao & Nicol, 2016).
The GERD is a turning point because Ethiopia engaged in this project unilaterally, thereby violating the principles of multilateralism and cooperation that had hitherto been central to Nile diplomacy (Baconi, 2018). In doing so, Ethiopia took advantage of Egypt's being distracted by the political turmoil (the Arab Spring) that was taking place at home in 2011. At the same time, tensions between Egypt and Sudan were beginning to increase: though both countries had been partners for a long time, Egypt had been neglecting Sudan in the last decades (Gresh, 2018) and therefore Sudan, as a relatively poor country, decided to support Ethiopia in its dam-building, with hopes that it would help meet its fast-growing agricultural needs (Johnson, 2018). This sudden move further isolated Egypt.
The GERD and Egypt
These turbulent times did not favour the use of diplomacy. On the contrary, the Egyptian government reacted equivocally, postponing meetings on the dam and constantly refusing to negotiate. The agreement that was reached in 2015 is actually a mere Declaration of Principles lacking a detailed outline of water allocation by country, and what is more, it has not proved satisfactory and negotiations are still taking place. Increasing tensions have also been felt, and Egypt even considered excluding Sudan or engaging in military actions at one point (Baconi, 2018). True enough, Egypt's supply of freshwater from the Nile is projected to drop by as much as 25% over the next 7 years due to the building of the dam (Baconi, 2018).
In May 2018, following the Egyptian presidential elections of March 2018, new agreements have been found that seem to outline a greater willingness to cooperate on the part of Egypt. In a way, the country has no choice but to be cooperative given its extremely high dependence on the water flows, which are now effectively under total Ethiopian control (Gresh, 2018). For now, we can only hope that the current Egyptian diplomatic stance remains the same over time - although many critics can be issued about the GERD, it is in Egypt's national interests to engage in proactive collaboration with the other countries in the Nile Basin.
Here is a good video that summarizes the challenges and potential benefits related to the GERD.
Sarah Champagne
References
Baconi, "The end is Nile: International cooperation on Egypt's water crisis", European Council on Foreign Relations, 25 July 2018, last consulted Oct 17 2018, https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_end_is_nile_international_cooperation_on_egypts_water_crisis
Cascao & Nicol, "GERD: new norms of cooperation in the Nile Basin?", in Water International 41:2016, 6 June 2016, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02508060.2016.1180763
Gresh, "Who Is Losing the Nile?", OrientXXI, 15 Feb 2018, last consulted 17 Oct 2018, https://orientxxi.info/magazine/who-is-losing-the-nile,2276
Huntjens, "Water Diplomacy: An Approach to Prevent and Resolve Conflict", The Hague Institute For Global Justice, 2 Sept 2016, last consulted 17 Oct 2018, http://www.thehagueinstituteforglobaljustice.org/latest-insights/latest-insights/commentary/water-diplomacy-an-approach-to-prevent-and-resolve-conflict/
Johnson, "Egypt-Sudan Spat Muddies Prospects for Deal on Big Nile Dame", Foreign Policy, 11 Jan 2018, last consulted 17 October 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/11/egypt-sudan-spat-muddies-prospects-for-deal-on-big-nile-dam-renaissance-gerd-ethiopia-sisi-turkey/
Stockholm International Water Institute, "International Symposium on Water Diplomacy: An Overview", last consulted 17 October 2018, http://www.siwi.org/international-symposium-water-diplomacy-overview/
Picture:
Gresh, "Who Is Losing the Nile?", OrientXXI, 15 Feb 2018, last consulted 17 Oct 2018, https://orientxxi.info/magazine/who-is-losing-the-nile,2276
A very short history of diplomacy on the Nile
Because the Nile Basin is shared by a lot of African countries, there have been several attempts to reach international agreements in the recent past, the success of which was always limited. One of them is the 1959 treaty between Egypt and Sudan which clearly advantaged Egypt: under this treaty, Sudan was to use less water than it naturally receives (Johnson, 2018). Another one is the Nile Basin Initiative of 1999, under which all Nile countries intended to come up with a shared vision for the Nile Basin. While this initiative certainly brought positive results such as a whole range of investment projects with common socio-economic benefits, it never really achieved its main goal of sharing the management of the river with a common vision for the future (Cascao & Nicol, 2016).
The GERD is a turning point because Ethiopia engaged in this project unilaterally, thereby violating the principles of multilateralism and cooperation that had hitherto been central to Nile diplomacy (Baconi, 2018). In doing so, Ethiopia took advantage of Egypt's being distracted by the political turmoil (the Arab Spring) that was taking place at home in 2011. At the same time, tensions between Egypt and Sudan were beginning to increase: though both countries had been partners for a long time, Egypt had been neglecting Sudan in the last decades (Gresh, 2018) and therefore Sudan, as a relatively poor country, decided to support Ethiopia in its dam-building, with hopes that it would help meet its fast-growing agricultural needs (Johnson, 2018). This sudden move further isolated Egypt.
The GERD and Egypt
These turbulent times did not favour the use of diplomacy. On the contrary, the Egyptian government reacted equivocally, postponing meetings on the dam and constantly refusing to negotiate. The agreement that was reached in 2015 is actually a mere Declaration of Principles lacking a detailed outline of water allocation by country, and what is more, it has not proved satisfactory and negotiations are still taking place. Increasing tensions have also been felt, and Egypt even considered excluding Sudan or engaging in military actions at one point (Baconi, 2018). True enough, Egypt's supply of freshwater from the Nile is projected to drop by as much as 25% over the next 7 years due to the building of the dam (Baconi, 2018).
In May 2018, following the Egyptian presidential elections of March 2018, new agreements have been found that seem to outline a greater willingness to cooperate on the part of Egypt. In a way, the country has no choice but to be cooperative given its extremely high dependence on the water flows, which are now effectively under total Ethiopian control (Gresh, 2018). For now, we can only hope that the current Egyptian diplomatic stance remains the same over time - although many critics can be issued about the GERD, it is in Egypt's national interests to engage in proactive collaboration with the other countries in the Nile Basin.
Here is a good video that summarizes the challenges and potential benefits related to the GERD.
Sarah Champagne
References
Baconi, "The end is Nile: International cooperation on Egypt's water crisis", European Council on Foreign Relations, 25 July 2018, last consulted Oct 17 2018, https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_end_is_nile_international_cooperation_on_egypts_water_crisis
Cascao & Nicol, "GERD: new norms of cooperation in the Nile Basin?", in Water International 41:2016, 6 June 2016, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02508060.2016.1180763
Gresh, "Who Is Losing the Nile?", OrientXXI, 15 Feb 2018, last consulted 17 Oct 2018, https://orientxxi.info/magazine/who-is-losing-the-nile,2276
Huntjens, "Water Diplomacy: An Approach to Prevent and Resolve Conflict", The Hague Institute For Global Justice, 2 Sept 2016, last consulted 17 Oct 2018, http://www.thehagueinstituteforglobaljustice.org/latest-insights/latest-insights/commentary/water-diplomacy-an-approach-to-prevent-and-resolve-conflict/
Johnson, "Egypt-Sudan Spat Muddies Prospects for Deal on Big Nile Dame", Foreign Policy, 11 Jan 2018, last consulted 17 October 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/11/egypt-sudan-spat-muddies-prospects-for-deal-on-big-nile-dam-renaissance-gerd-ethiopia-sisi-turkey/
Stockholm International Water Institute, "International Symposium on Water Diplomacy: An Overview", last consulted 17 October 2018, http://www.siwi.org/international-symposium-water-diplomacy-overview/
Picture:
Gresh, "Who Is Losing the Nile?", OrientXXI, 15 Feb 2018, last consulted 17 Oct 2018, https://orientxxi.info/magazine/who-is-losing-the-nile,2276
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