Addressing agricultural needs and challenges in the Nile Delta



Agriculture is a key issue in Egyptian politics. Nowadays, the agricultural sector´s percentage in Egypt´s GDP remains relatively significant (11.5% in 2017) (World Bank and OECD, 2017), and in 2001, the sector employed as much as 32% of the total labour force (Schilling et al, 2012). Crops are mainly concentrated in the Nile Delta, which is a very fertile area. Indeed, the Nile provides more than 95% of available water in the country (Elsharkawy et al, 2009). It is also a very densely populated area since it constitutes ⅔ of Egypt´s total inhabitable land (Stanley & Warne, 1993). The major agricultural crops grown there are maize, wheat, clover, rice, sugar cane, faba bean and soybean, and 100% of its farmland relies on irrigation (El-Shaer et al, 1996), meaning water is a key actor in sustaining people´s livelihoods in the region.

The Nile. Credits: Wikipedia



The pressure can already be felt...

Map of the Nile Delta. Credits: Wikipedia

The Egyptian population has been on a constant rise for decades, and in 2050 it is predicted to become home to 57 million more people compared to 2012 (Schilling et al, 2012). In response to this trend and in order to achieve food security, the government decided in 1964 to close the High Aswan Dam, which, in addition to providing hydroelectric power, allowed for intense irrigation and thus increased the Delta´s productivity. Yet at the same time, this shift to intensive farming had negative environmental impacts: it accelerated erosion and facilitated marine incursion, which in turn increased the salinization of cultivated land. This reduces both the quantity and the quality of crop yields. It also led to a sharp decline in fish population and to the choking of canals by hyacinths, which increased water loss by evapotranspiration (Stanley & Warne, 1993). What is more, it prompted nutrient depletion, thus reducing the quality of food crops (El-Shaer et al, 1996).

These environmental problems are exacerbated by poor technical and insitutional management. Egypt already uses more water resources than is renewable, and agriculture consumes ca. 85% of the amount used (Elsharkawy et al, 2009). Groundwater below the city of Aswam is further being diverted at unsustainable rates for Cairo´s municipal and industrial purposes as well as for irrigation projects (Stanley & Warne, 1993). Moreover, poor management of surface drainage and of irrigation increases soil salinity and humidity, thereby limiting agricultural productivity (El-Shaer et al, 1996). Hence at present, the achievement of food security is already a considerable challenge in the Egyptian political agenda.

...and climate change will only intensify it

Climate change is projected to greatly impact the MENA region (Middle East North Africa), notably in terms of agricultural yields. Firstly, it will increase water pollution, thereby deteriorating the quality of water used for irrigation, which in turn will reduce agricultural productivity. It will also increase salinization which, combined with the expected increase in urbanization (notably due to the population growth), will reduce the amount of land available for farming (El-Shaer et al, 1996). Secondly, the Nile Delta was classified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. It was calculated that with a 1 meter rise, agricultural yields would decrease by 12.5%; and by 5 m, by 35% (Elsharkawy et al, 2009). Moreover, 15% of the delta cropland is expected to be lost (Elsharkawy et al, 2009). Overall, 13% of the Egyptian northern coast is at risk of being affected by sea-level rise (Egyptian Streets, 2018). Further llikely consequences of just 1 m sea-level rise include the displacement of 6.1 million people in Egypt, and the loss of beaches, which will hit the tourist industry (Elsharkawy et al, 2009). As a result, Egypt could experience a rise in unemployment rates in both the agricultural and the tourism sectors, thus possibly fostering civil unrest.

Political responses urgently needed

The rural population of the Nile Delta is starting to witness the consequences of climate change and they don´t know what to do. In an interview conducted by NPR, ordinary Egyptians expressed their fears: “We're seeing things we never saw before, in a way that could make us believe this is anger from God on the village and its people." ; "In the winter, the sea attacks us," ; "We are afraid the village will sink into the sea." (Arraf, 2017). The government must urgently address the water needs of its citizens, notably those working in the agricultural sector: presently, because of pollution and salinization, in the words of one interviewee, “the crops die” (Arraf, 2017). Political measures targeting agricultural productivity could focus on e.g. (El-Shaer et al, 1996; Stanley & Warne, 1993):
- building coastal defence structures
- strictly regulating the Nile water supply
- building artificial wetlands and treatment facilities for recycling water
- investing in expensive but efficient Drainage
- introducing rewards and penalties as incentives for water conservation
- improving irrigation technologies
- promoting heat-tolerant and salinity-tolerant crops.
In addition, public awareness-raising campaigns on climate change should be undertaken, as the majority of Egyptians don´t feel concerned by it (Medhat, 2015). Modes of water governance should be diversified so as to encourage an integrative approach built on public-private partnerships and civil participation (Abouleish et al, WRI, no indicated date). Lastly, international cooperation should continue to be developed, especially given the success of existing projects: the UNDP and the Egyptian government have jointly been carrying out various adaptation projects, implementing and improving coastal zone engineering, data analysis, climate hazards prevention systems, infrastructure, and much more (UNDP, 2016 and UNDP, 2018). International cooperation is particularly useful because it allows for more reliability and transparency, and gives access to more financial resources.
Sarah Champagne

References

Abouleish et al (SEKEM), "Egypt, SEKEM, and Climate Change", World Resources Institute, date unknown, https://www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report/egypt-sekem-and-climate-Change

Arraf: "In Egypt, a rising sea - and growing worries about climate change´s effects", NPR, 2017, accessed on 10 October 2018, https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/08/13/542645647/in-egypt-a-rising-sea-and-growing-worries-about-climate-changes-effects 

Egyptian Streets: "Alexandria at Risk of Being Submerged Due to Worsening Climate Change: Study", 2018, accessed on 10 October 2018, https://egyptianstreets.com/2018/01/03/alexandria-at-risk-of-being-submerged-due-to-worsening-climate-change-study/ 

El-Shaer et al, Impacts of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future, 1996, https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1023%2FB%3AMITI.0000018270.16497.39.pdf 

Elsharkawy et al, Climate Change, the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Egypt, 45th ISOCARP Congress, 2009, http://www.isocarp.net/data/case_studies/1456.pdf 

Mehdat, "Egypt to witness grave consequences if global warming endures", Egyptian Streets, 2015, https://egyptianstreets.com/2015/07/26/egypt-to-witness-grave-consequences-within-10-years-if-global-warming-endures/ 

Schilling et al, Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco, 2012, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880912001648 

Stanley & Warne, Nile Delta: Recent Geological Evolutions and Human Impact, 1993, http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/260/5108/628.full.pdf 

UNDP, "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nile Delta Through Integrated Coastal Zone Management", 2016, accessed on 10 October 2018, http://www.eg.undp.org/content/egypt/en/home/operations/projects/climate-and-disaster-resilience/project_sample1.html 

UNDP, "Egypt", 2018, accessed on 10 October 2018, http://adaptation-undp.org/explore/northern-africa/egypt 

World Bank, OECD, "Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added (% of GDP)", accessed on 10 October 2018, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/nv.agr.totl.zs 

Pictures 

Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nile_Delta_-_Naucratis.png and https://eo.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nilo